The Villages Warnings, Watches and Advisories

Do not drive vehicles through flooded areas. The water depth or fast flowing water/mud/debris from a flash flood will make road conditions unsafe. Do not rely soley on data presented here or other third-party websites - always check your official national and local weather service agency website, socials, radio and/or TV stations for making critical decisions related to weather events.

Please carefully read each posted Warning and Alert as it relates to the area(s) being affected. We may provide a wider range of issued severe weather warnings for surrounding cities and counties, so some alerts may not directly impact this location. This is done to help with preparing for severe weather that may overlap or be heading towards The Villages.

Use the Radar Maps link provided to understand the trajectory of a storm.

Rip Current Statement issued November 4 at 9:52PM CST until November 8 at 5:00AM CST by NWS Mobile AL

* WHAT...Dangerous rip currents. * WHERE...In Alabama, Mobile Coastal and Baldwin Coastal Counties. In Florida, Escambia Coastal, Santa Rosa Coastal and Okaloosa Coastal Counties. * WHEN...Through late Thursday night. * IMPACTS...Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water.

Tropical Cyclone Statement issued November 4 at 10:43PM EST by NWS Key West FL

HLSKEY This product covers the Florida Keys **TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS** NEW INFORMATION --------------- * CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - None * CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Monroe Lower Keys and Monroe Middle Keys * STORM INFORMATION: - About 640 miles south-southeast of Key West FL or about 630 miles south-southeast of Marathon FL - 16.3N 77.2W - Storm Intensity 45 mph - Movement North-northwest or 335 degrees at 12 mph SITUATION OVERVIEW ------------------ At 1000 PM EST, the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was located in the Caribbean Sea about 195 miles south-southwest of Jamaica. Rafael is moving toward the north-northwest at 12 mph. A northwestward motion is expected with a faster speed overnight and is forecast to continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move near Jamaica Tuesday morning, be near or over the Cayman Islands as a hurricane Tuesday night, and approach Cuba on Wednesday. There is moderate confidence in a forecast track across western Cuba into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, passing to the southwest and west of the Florida Keys. Due to uncertainty in the exact structure of the storm, there remains some uncertainty in the level of potential impacts for the island chain. The potential for sustained tropical storm force winds has increased from the previous advisory, with chances now seven in ten at Key West, and around one in two at Marathon and Layton. Tropical storm force winds will most likely arrive around midday Wednesday. There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms Wednesday and Wednesday night, including the potential for a few tornadoes. The most potent thundery squalls will be capable of localized wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph. Saltwater flooding for oceanside portions of the Florida Keys could reach up to 2 feet above mean higher high water Wednesday through Wednesday evening, or about a foot higher than recent high tides. POTENTIAL IMPACTS ----------------- * WIND: Prepare for dangerous wind having possible significant impacts across the Lower and Middle Keys. Potential impacts in this area include: - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight objects become dangerous projectiles. - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several fences and roadway signs blown over. - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access routes impassable. - Scattered power and communications outages. * SURGE: Prepare for locally hazardous surge having possible limited impacts across Florida Keys. Potential impacts in this area include: - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore. - Sections of roads and parking lots inundated by surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where surge water covers the road. - Moderate beach erosion. - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings. * TORNADOES: Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across the Lower Keys. Potential impacts include: - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events. - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power and communications disruptions. - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS ---------------------------------- * EVACUATIONS: Refer to monroecountyem.com for the latest information. * OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION: Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your home or business. When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the center of the storm. If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large trees, a manufactured home, or on a boat, plan to move to safe shelter. When securing your property, outside preparations should be concluded as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of strong gusty winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness activities to become unsafe. Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes to the forecast. There is a threat from tornadoes with this storm. Have multiple ways to receive Tornado Warnings. Be ready to shelter quickly. * ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION: - For Monroe County Emergency Management Information, see monroecountyem.com - For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov - For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org - For Florida Division of Emergency Management information, see floridadisaster.org NEXT UPDATE ----------- The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather Service in Key West FL around 5 AM EST, or sooner if conditions warrant.

Rip Current Statement issued November 4 at 10:19PM EST until November 7 at 7:00PM EST by NWS Miami FL

* WHAT...For the High Surf Advisory, large breaking waves of 7 to 10 feet in the surf zone. For the High Rip Current Risk, dangerous rip currents. * WHERE...Coastal Palm Beach County and Coastal Broward County. * WHEN...For the High Surf Advisory, until 7 PM EST Thursday. For the High Rip Current Risk, through Thursday evening. * IMPACTS...Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion. Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water.

Rip Current Statement issued November 4 at 10:19PM EST until November 7 at 7:00PM EST by NWS Miami FL

* WHAT...Dangerous rip currents. * WHERE...Coastal Miami Dade County. * WHEN...Through Thursday evening. * IMPACTS...Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water.

High Surf Advisory issued November 4 at 10:19PM EST until November 7 at 7:00PM EST by NWS Miami FL

* WHAT...For the High Surf Advisory, large breaking waves of 7 to 10 feet in the surf zone. For the High Rip Current Risk, dangerous rip currents. * WHERE...Coastal Palm Beach County and Coastal Broward County. * WHEN...For the High Surf Advisory, until 7 PM EST Thursday. For the High Rip Current Risk, through Thursday evening. * IMPACTS...Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion. Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water.

Tropical Storm Watch issued November 4 at 10:08PM EST by NWS Key West FL

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED - Marathon - Key Colony Beach - Layton * WIND - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind - Peak Wind Forecast: 20-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 39 to 57 mph - The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm force. - PREPARE: Efforts to protect property should now be underway. Prepare for limited wind damage. - ACT: Act now to complete preparations before the wind becomes hazardous. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about. - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over. - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways. - Scattered power and communications outages. * STORM SURGE - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Localized storm surge possible - Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for up to 2 feet above ground somewhere within surge prone areas - Window of concern: early Wednesday morning until Thursday morning - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for storm surge flooding greater than 1 foot above ground - The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Plan for storm surge flooding greater than 1 foot above ground. - PREPARE: Complete preparations for storm surge flooding, especially in low-lying vulnerable areas, before conditions become unsafe. - ACT: Leave immediately if evacuation orders are given for your area. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore. - Sections of roads and parking lots inundated by surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where surge water covers the road. - Moderate beach erosion. - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings. * FLOODING RAIN - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 1-3 inches, with locally higher amounts - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for localized flooding rain - The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for localized flooding from heavy rain. - PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding. - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations. - Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in usually vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding of water occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds become near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and bridge closures. * TORNADO - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Situation is unfavorable for tornadoes - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Tornadoes not expected - The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Tornadoes are not expected. Showers and thunderstorms with gusty winds may still occur. - PREPARE: Little to no preparations needed to protect against tornadoes at this time. Keep informed of the latest tornado situation. - ACT: Listen for changes in the forecast. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None - Little to no potential impacts from tornadoes. * FOR MORE INFORMATION: - Family emergency plans: Federal Emergency Management Agency - http://ready.gov/ - Local weather conditions and forecasts: NOAA/Florida Keys National Weather Service - http://www.weather.gov/key/

Tropical Storm Watch issued November 4 at 10:08PM EST by NWS Key West FL

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED - Key West - Sugarloaf Key - Big Pine Key * WIND - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind - Peak Wind Forecast: 25-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 58 to 73 mph - The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Plan for dangerous wind of equivalent strong tropical storm force. - PREPARE: Efforts to protect life and property should now be underway. Prepare for significant wind damage. - ACT: Act now to complete preparations before the wind becomes hazardous. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight objects become dangerous projectiles. - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several fences and roadway signs blown over. - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access routes impassable. - Scattered power and communications outages. * STORM SURGE - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Localized storm surge possible - Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for up to 2 feet above ground somewhere within surge prone areas - Window of concern: early Wednesday morning until Thursday morning - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for storm surge flooding greater than 1 foot above ground - The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Plan for storm surge flooding greater than 1 foot above ground. - PREPARE: Complete preparations for storm surge flooding, especially in low-lying vulnerable areas, before conditions become unsafe. - ACT: Leave immediately if evacuation orders are given for your area. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore. - Sections of roads and parking lots inundated by surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where surge water covers the road. - Moderate beach erosion. - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings. * FLOODING RAIN - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Peak Rainfall Amounts: 1-3 inches, with locally higher amounts - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for localized flooding rain - The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for localized flooding from heavy rain. - PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding. - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations. - Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in usually vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding of water occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds become near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and bridge closures. * TORNADO - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for a few tornadoes - The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for a few tornadoes. - PREPARE: If your shelter is particularly vulnerable to tornadoes, prepare to relocate to safe shelter before hazardous weather arrives. - ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter quickly. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events. - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power and communications disruptions. - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings. * FOR MORE INFORMATION: - Family emergency plans: Federal Emergency Management Agency - http://ready.gov/ - Local weather conditions and forecasts: NOAA/Florida Keys National Weather Service - http://www.weather.gov/key/

Wind Advisory issued November 4 at 10:03PM EST until November 6 at 1:00AM EST by NWS Miami FL

* WHAT...East winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph expected. * WHERE...Coastal Palm Beach County, Coastal Broward County and Coastal Miami Dade County. * WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

Rip Current Statement issued November 4 at 8:12PM EST until November 5 at 5:00AM EST by NWS Jacksonville FL

* WHAT...Dangerous rip currents. * WHERE...Southeast Georgia and Northeast Florida Beaches. * WHEN...Until 5 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water.

Coastal Flood Advisory issued November 4 at 8:12PM EST until November 6 at 4:00AM EST by NWS Jacksonville FL

* WHAT...Minor coastal flooding. * WHERE...St Johns River Basin. * WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Flooding of lots, parks, and roads with only isolated road closures expected. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...

Flood Warning issued November 4 at 7:51PM EST by NWS Tampa Bay Ruskin FL

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Florida... Withlacoochee At US 41 Dunnellon affecting Citrus and Levy Counties. Withlacoochee River At Croom affecting Pasco and Sumter Counties. Withlacoochee At SR 200 Holder affecting Citrus County. Withlacoochee At US 301 Trilby affecting Hernando and Pasco Counties. For the Withlacoochee...including US 301 Trilby, Croom, SR 200 Holder, US 41 Dunnellon...Moderate flooding is forecast. * WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast. * WHERE...Withlacoochee River at Croom. * WHEN...Until further notice. * IMPACTS...At 9.0 feet, Farms and pastureland flood. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 7:30 PM EST Monday the stage was 9.9 feet. - Bankfull stage is 9.0 feet. - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending at 7:30 PM EST Monday was 10.1 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to fall to 9.4 feet Thursday evening. - Flood stage is 9.0 feet. - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 10.0 feet on 09/03/1949. - https://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

Flood Warning issued November 4 at 7:51PM EST by NWS Tampa Bay Ruskin FL

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Florida... Withlacoochee At US 41 Dunnellon affecting Citrus and Levy Counties. Withlacoochee River At Croom affecting Pasco and Sumter Counties. Withlacoochee At SR 200 Holder affecting Citrus County. Withlacoochee At US 301 Trilby affecting Hernando and Pasco Counties. For the Withlacoochee...including US 301 Trilby, Croom, SR 200 Holder, US 41 Dunnellon...Moderate flooding is forecast. * WHAT...Moderate flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is forecast. * WHERE...Withlacoochee at US 301 Trilby. * WHEN...Until further notice. * IMPACTS...At 14.2 feet, River road east of the river is flooded. One campsite at the park is flooded. Peterson Park is flooded and closed. One home on Cercelia road is isolated. The Florida Campland is flooded. Wood River Court homes are isolated. And the Withlacoochee River canoe rental is flooded. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 7:30 PM EST Monday the stage was 14.7 feet. - Bankfull stage is 12.0 feet. - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending at 7:30 PM EST Monday was 15.0 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to fall to 13.7 feet Thursday evening. - Flood stage is 12.0 feet. - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 14.7 feet on 09/21/1964. - https://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

Flood Warning issued November 4 at 7:51PM EST by NWS Tampa Bay Ruskin FL

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Florida... Withlacoochee At US 41 Dunnellon affecting Citrus and Levy Counties. Withlacoochee River At Croom affecting Pasco and Sumter Counties. Withlacoochee At SR 200 Holder affecting Citrus County. Withlacoochee At US 301 Trilby affecting Hernando and Pasco Counties. For the Withlacoochee...including US 301 Trilby, Croom, SR 200 Holder, US 41 Dunnellon...Moderate flooding is forecast. * WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast. * WHERE...Withlacoochee at US 41 Dunnellon. * WHEN...Until further notice. * IMPACTS...At 29.0 feet, Docks and boat ramps flood. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 6:45 PM EST Monday the stage was 29.7 feet. - Bankfull stage is 29.0 feet. - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending at 6:45 PM EST Monday was 29.8 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to remain steady above flood stage at 29.7 feet. - Flood stage is 29.0 feet. - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 29.7 feet on 03/20/1998. - https://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

Flood Warning issued November 4 at 7:51PM EST by NWS Tampa Bay Ruskin FL

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Florida... Withlacoochee At US 41 Dunnellon affecting Citrus and Levy Counties. Withlacoochee River At Croom affecting Pasco and Sumter Counties. Withlacoochee At SR 200 Holder affecting Citrus County. Withlacoochee At US 301 Trilby affecting Hernando and Pasco Counties. For the Withlacoochee...including US 301 Trilby, Croom, SR 200 Holder, US 41 Dunnellon...Moderate flooding is forecast. * WHAT...Moderate flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is forecast. * WHERE...Withlacoochee at SR 200 Holder. * WHEN...Until further notice. * IMPACTS...At 9.0 feet, Arrowhead subdivision floods with water in homes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 6:45 PM EST Monday the stage was 10.9 feet. - Bankfull stage is 8.0 feet. - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending at 6:45 PM EST Monday was 10.9 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 10.9 feet just after midnight tonight. - Flood stage is 8.0 feet. - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 11.2 feet on 09/26/1933. - https://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

Flood Warning issued November 4 at 7:44PM EST by NWS Melbourne FL

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Florida... St Johns River Near Astor affecting Volusia and Lake Counties. .The Saint Johns River at Astor remains in Moderate Flood Stage and a very slow decline in river level is forecast to continue. Residents and interests along the Saint Johns River should continue to expect prolonged flood impacts. For the St. Johns River...including Astor...Moderate flooding is forecast. Additional information is available at www.weather.gov. The next statement will be issued Tuesday afternoon at noon EST. * WHAT...Moderate flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is forecast. * WHERE...St Johns River near Astor. * WHEN...Until further notice. * IMPACTS...At 3.0 feet, Water approaches or may enter lowest homes on or near Wildhog Road and nearby canals. Flooding reaches the parking lot of the Juno Trail Apartments. Flooding on portions of Alligator Road and Holiday Road. Lowest lying yards along Blue Creek are flooded. Roads at Astor Landing Campground and Lake Dexter Boat Ramp begin to flood. Water enters lower homes closest to the river on McPherson Lane. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 6:30 PM EST Monday the stage was 3.2 feet. - Bankfull stage is 2.0 feet. - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending at 6:30 PM EST Monday was 3.2 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to very slowly decline through Moderate Flood Stage this week. - Flood stage is 2.3 feet. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

Flood Warning issued November 4 at 7:41PM EST by NWS Melbourne FL

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Florida... St Johns River Above Lake Harney affecting Seminole County. .The Saint Johns River Above Lake Harney near Geneva is forecast to continue a steady decline through Minor Flood Stage this week, and could potentially fall below Minor Flood Stage sometime this weekend. Residents and interests along the St. Johns River near Lake Harney will continue to experience prolonged flood impacts. For the St. Johns River...including Above Lake Harney...Minor flooding is forecast. Additional information is available at www.weather.gov. The next statement will be issued Tuesday afternoon at noon EST. * WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast. * WHERE...St Johns River near Above Lake Harney. * WHEN...Until further notice. * IMPACTS...At 8.5 feet, Water surrounds homes on stilts on Prevatt road, entering garages on the first story. Water fills yards and ditches along Whitcomb Drive and Lake Harney Road. Roads flood in the Palm Shores and Mullet Lake areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 6:30 PM EST Monday the stage was 8.5 feet. - Bankfull stage is 6.0 feet. - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending at 6:30 PM EST Monday was 8.5 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to continue a steady decline through Minor Flood Stage, potentially falling below Minor Flood Stage this weekend. - Flood stage is 8.0 feet. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

Flood Warning issued November 4 at 7:38PM EST by NWS Melbourne FL

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Florida... St Johns River Near Sanford affecting Seminole County. .The Saint Johns River at Sanford is forecast to continue a slow decline through minor flood stage this week. Residents and interests along the St. Johns River at Sanford should continue to expect prolonged minor flood impacts. For the St. Johns River...including Sanford...Minor flooding is forecast. Additional information is available at www.weather.gov. The next statement will be issued Tuesday afternoon at noon EST. * WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast. * WHERE...St Johns River near Sanford. * WHEN...Until further notice. * IMPACTS...At 6.0 feet, Water encroaches on low lying roads, also pool enclosures and patios in the Stone Island area. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 6:30 PM EST Monday the stage was 6.0 feet. - Bankfull stage is 4.2 feet. - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending at 6:30 PM EST Monday was 6.1 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to continue a slow decline through minor flood stage. - Flood stage is 5.5 feet. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

Flood Warning issued November 4 at 7:35PM EST by NWS Melbourne FL

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Florida... St Johns River Near Deland affecting Volusia and Lake Counties. .The Saint Johns River at Deland is forecast to continue a steady decline through minor flood stage this week. Residents and interests along the St. Johns River at Deland should continue to expect prolonged flood impacts. For the St. Johns River...including Deland ...Minor flooding is forecast. Additional information is available at www.weather.gov. The next statement will be issued Tuesday afternoon at noon EST. * WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast. * WHERE...St Johns River near Deland. * WHEN...Until further notice. * IMPACTS...At 4.5 feet, Water moves into yards and approaches buildings around Hontoon Island. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 6:30 PM EST Monday the stage was 4.4 feet. - Bankfull stage is 3.5 feet. - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending at 6:30 PM EST Monday was 4.5 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to continue a steady decline through minor flood stage. - Flood stage is 4.0 feet. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

Tropical Cyclone Statement issued November 4 at 4:58PM EST by NWS Key West FL

HLSKEY This product covers the Florida Keys **TROPICAL STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS** NEW INFORMATION --------------- * CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Monroe Lower Keys and Monroe Middle Keys * STORM INFORMATION: - About 700 miles south-southeast of Key West FL - 15.5N 76.7W - Storm Intensity 45 mph - Movement North or 10 degrees at 9 mph SITUATION OVERVIEW ------------------ At 400 PM EST, the center of newly named Tropical Storm Rafael was located in the Caribbean Sea about 175 miles south of Jamaica. Rafael is moving toward the north near 9 mph. A northwestward motion is expected to begin later tonight and forecast to continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move near Jamaica late tonight, be near or over the Cayman Islands as a hurricane late Tuesday, and approach Cuba on Wednesday. There is moderate confidence in a forecast track across western Cuba into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, passing to the southwest and west of the Florida Keys. Due to uncertainty in the exact structure of the storm, there remains some uncertainty in the level of potential impacts on the Florida Keys. The potential for sustained tropical storm force winds has increased from the previous advisory, with chances now just below three in five at Key West, and just below one in two at Marathon and Layton. Tropical storm force winds will most likely arrive Wednesday morning. There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms Wednesday and Wednesday night, including a few tornadoes. The most potent thundery squalls will be capable of localized wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph. Saltwater flooding for oceanside portions of the Florida Keys could reach up to 2 feet above mean higher high water on Wednesday through Wednesday evening, or about a foot higher than recent high tides. POTENTIAL IMPACTS ----------------- * WIND: Prepare for dangerous wind having possible significant impacts across Lower and Middle Keys. Potential impacts in this area include: - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight objects become dangerous projectiles. - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several fences and roadway signs blown over. - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access routes impassable. - Scattered power and communications outages. * TORNADOES: Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across the Lower Keys. Potential impacts include: - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events. - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power and communications disruptions. - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS ---------------------------------- * EVACUATIONS: Refer to monroecountyem.com for the latest information. * OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION: Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your home or business. When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the center of the storm. If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large trees, a manufactured home, or on a boat, plan to move to safe shelter. When securing your property, outside preparations should be concluded on Tuesday before conditions deteriorate. The onset of strong gusty winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness activities to become unsafe. There is a threat from tornadoes with this storm. Have multiple ways to receive Tornado Warnings. Be ready to shelter quickly. * ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION: - For Monroe County Emergency Management Information, see monroecountyem.com - For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov - For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org NEXT UPDATE ----------- The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather Service in Key West FL around 11 PM EST, or sooner if conditions warrant.

Rip Current Statement issued November 4 at 2:52PM EST until November 8 at 1:00AM EST by NWS Tallahassee FL

* WHAT...Dangerous rip currents. * WHERE...Walton, Gulf, and Franklin County Beaches. * WHEN...Through late Thursday night. * IMPACTS...Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water.

Rip Current Statement issued November 4 at 2:52PM EST until November 8 at 1:00AM EST by NWS Tallahassee FL

* WHAT...Dangerous rip currents. * WHERE...Bay County Beaches. * WHEN...Through Thursday evening. * IMPACTS...Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water.

Rip Current Statement issued November 4 at 3:44AM EST until November 5 at 4:00AM EST by NWS Melbourne FL

* WHAT...For the High Rip Current Risk, dangerous rip currents. For the High Surf Advisory, large breaking waves of 5 to 7 feet expected in the surf zone. * WHERE...Coastal Volusia, Mainland Northern Brevard and Northern Brevard Barrier Islands Counties. * WHEN...For the High Rip Current Risk, through late tonight. For the High Surf Advisory, from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion. Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water.

Rip Current Statement issued November 4 at 3:44AM EST until November 5 at 4:00AM EST by NWS Melbourne FL

* WHAT...For the High Rip Current Risk, dangerous rip currents. For the High Surf Advisory, large breaking waves of 5 to 8 feet expected in the surf zone. * WHERE...Coastal Indian River, Coastal Saint Lucie, Coastal Martin, Mainland Southern Brevard and Southern Brevard Barrier Islands Counties. * WHEN...For the High Surf Advisory, until 4 AM EST Wednesday. For the High Rip Current Risk, through late tonight. * IMPACTS...Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion. Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water.

High Surf Advisory issued November 4 at 3:44AM EST until November 6 at 4:00AM EST by NWS Melbourne FL

* WHAT...For the High Rip Current Risk, dangerous rip currents. For the High Surf Advisory, large breaking waves of 5 to 8 feet expected in the surf zone. * WHERE...Coastal Indian River, Coastal Saint Lucie, Coastal Martin, Mainland Southern Brevard and Southern Brevard Barrier Islands Counties. * WHEN...For the High Surf Advisory, until 4 AM EST Wednesday. For the High Rip Current Risk, through late tonight. * IMPACTS...Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion. Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water.

High Surf Advisory issued November 4 at 3:44AM EST until November 6 at 4:00AM EST by NWS Melbourne FL

* WHAT...For the High Rip Current Risk, dangerous rip currents. For the High Surf Advisory, large breaking waves of 5 to 7 feet expected in the surf zone. * WHERE...Coastal Volusia, Mainland Northern Brevard and Northern Brevard Barrier Islands Counties. * WHEN...For the High Rip Current Risk, through late tonight. For the High Surf Advisory, from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion. Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water.